Let's dive deeper into the latest economic numbers.
Why is Canada's inflation lower in January 2026?
In Canada's latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, headline inflation in January declined to 2.3% from 2.4%, though skewed by significant base-year effects (last year's GST break ending February 15, 2025 and carbon tax removal in April), which helps the current inflation reading to look lower than it is.
January's headline drop was largely due to lower gas prices (again), but was also held higher (again) by groceries (4.8%), and other entertainment items that might distract us from negative news, such as toys, restaurants, and alcohol. According to the latest data, restaurant prices are up over 12% since last year, and grocery prices are up 7.3% — making Canada the 'Food Inflation Capital' of the G7.
Stripping out the volatile energy component, the remaining CPI baskets rose to 3.2%. However, core inflation (the average of the median and trimmed measures) fell to 2.5% from last month's 2.6%, indicating that inflation is moderating, at least until the current base-year effects age out.
This latest inflation report underscores the Bank of Canada's estimate that inflation will likely remain within target (or near target), despite current perceived risks and trade instability.
Economic drag from trade disruptions and a soft economy should help offset other price pressures, possibly allowing the BoC to leave its policy rate unchanged as the Fall 2025 rate cuts work through the economy.
At the very least, this report eases the pressure to introduce a rate hike in the near term.
Is Canada's labour market weakening in early 2026?
January 2026 labour market data show an improvement in the unemployment rate, from 6.8% in December to 6.5%.
However, the market also lost almost 25K jobs. The UR improvement is more likely due to fewer people looking for work, with a 0.1% drop in the participation rate (the first drop since August 2025) and only 10K jobs created (compared with 181K created between September and November of last year).
In fact, in Q3 2025, Canada logged its "steepest population decline on record ... mainly the result of a significant decline in non-permanent residents," (CTV News, January 27, 2026). Lowered immigration targets, which could bring population growth to near zero in 2026 and 2027, may result in the appearance of 'improving' labour numbers as 2026 marches on.
So far, U.S.-trade-exposed sectors are experiencing higher rates of job loss, along with public sectors affected by government layoffs. And full-time jobs gained, while more part-time jobs were lost in January — perhaps a sign that some businesses are trimming down to essential staffing requirements.
Still, analysts expected a January job loss of 7K and for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.8%. With some slack taken up, it's still not enough to sway the Bank of Canada off its rate-pause stance for now.
How is Canada's economic growth being affected by trade disruption?
Real GDP contracted by 0.1% in Q4 2025. Overall, Canada's GDP in 2025 grew by a meagre 1.6%.
That number tracks with the Bank of Canada's growth forecast for last year, but is also the slowest pace in 5 years, primarily due to reduced U.S. exports (stating the obvious here).
The news isn't all like watching paint dry — government stimulus and private domestic demand propped up the numbers in the Q4, showing a bit of underlying strength, and holding the Bank of Canada back from pulling the rate-plunge lever.
Here's a look at quarterly 2025 GDP (quarter over quarter and annualized pace), reflecting the rollercoaster ride of U.S. trade turmoil since January 2025:
- Q1 2025: +0.5% real, +2.1% annualized
- Q2 2025: -0.2% real, -0.9% annualized
- Q3 2025: +0.6% real, +2.4% annualized
- Q4 2025: -0.2% real, +0.6% annualized
Also, Statistics Canada recently revised its GDP data for 2022 to 2024, saying the economy expanded by 1.7% more than thought for those three years.
Is the threat of a recession hanging over Canada in 2026?
The Bank of Canada has projected real GDP economic growth of 1.1% for 2026. Growth is better than a contraction, but that level isn't something to get excited about. And its forecast excludes a worst-case trade scenario.
With the potential for U.S. trade disruption to drag more sectors, how much would it take for another quarter of contraction to appear? Right now, that's a rhetorical question. But GST relief, government stimulus, and infrastructure and trade initiatives are hoped to help prop Canada's economy as 2026 marches on.
Regardless, last year's up-and-down GDP readings reinforce the Bank of Canada's caution in holding its rate for a time, as it seeks concrete and sustained indications of weakening or strengthening before making another rate cut or hike decision this year.
How is economic volatility affecting Canada's housing market in late 2025?
National housing sales and home price averages declined again in December 2025, with year-over-year sales down by 2.7% and the MLS®HPI composite benchmark price by 4.0% (not seasonally adjusted). In 2025, the composite benchmark price declined by 2.7% compared to 2024.
Many buyers and sellers remained on the sidelines during a turbulent economic and political year. Some are expected to come off the sidelines, perhaps out of necessity or simply because more deals are available in markets that are usually higher-priced, such as those in Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver. Others may be buying before demand picks up in lower-priced, higher-value markets, such as those in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
With mortgage rate levels considered non-restrictive (having declined significantly over the past two years), housing analysts expect a more robust Spring 2026 buying season than last year. However, ongoing economic and trade uncertainty, along with moderate inflation, may weigh on households and continue to inhibit markets until a more sustained recovery builds in 2027.
Read more here: Housing Market Forecast (2025-2029)
How is the U.S. economy influencing Canada's interest rate outlook?
Like it or not, our countries' economies are closely linked.
With a Trump presidency, here are some current concerns:
- Geopolitical developments due to recent U.S. maneuvers and demands could damage the global economy or raise oil prices.
- U.S. data sources, under political pressure, are giving some economists reason for concern that they're offering an unbiased read of the U.S. economy.
- U.S. trade policies are causing supply and demand shocks, leading to price hikes that are slowly being passed on to consumers in both countries.
- Trade disruptions and higher U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian imports are injecting significant uncertainty for Canadian companies and consumers, interrupting planning, hiring, investment, and spending decisions.
- Immigration issues between the two countries may further diminish our labour productivity.
- The interest rate differential between the two central banks is 2.0%, which is pressuring input prices.
- Proposed U.S. taxes (section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act) on Canadian investments and companies could have a significant impact on our economy.
- Markets are nervous about the decline of the U.S. dollar, which "can also make investing in Canada less attractive if (the Canadian dollar) is less undervalued." (Financial Post, Jan. 29, 2026)
- U.S. government debt is ballooning — current U.S. debt interest payments exceed the defence budget — and tariff revenue is $100B less than expected so far.